Earthquake in Slow Motion

Ken Auletta references to an "earthquake in slow motion" has to do with the changing television landscape. For decades the choice people had on television was NBC, CBS, or ABC. In bigger cities you might also have access to a few local broadcast channels, but any show or even of importance would be televised on one of the Big 3 networks. This model had been largely unchanged until the Fox network decided to take aggressive steps to get on equal footing with the Big 3. Founded in 1986, Fox began a gradual climb into television relevance. After several years of building a steady base of affiliate networks, Fox made its presence felt for good by acquiring rights to broadcast NFL games in 1993. With the firm foothold in 18-49 demographics, the network continued to climb in popularity, and by 2007 became the most viewed of the new Big 4 networks.

The earthquake continued for the original Big 3 networks with the rise of cable companies that were able to produce cheaper shows, and also get paid for the broadcast rights, which was the opposite financial model that the Big 3 networks were using. While the Big 3 pay for rights to broadcast a show, and hope to recoup their investments by selling advertising spots, cable channels get paid by cable carriers, thus ensuring a steady source of income. This allows cable channels to take more risks for programming content, which attracts more diverse viewers. While the Big 4 still routinely draw more viewers due to their wider availability, it takes many more viewers for one of their shows to be considered a 'hit'. This of course leads to the networks not taking chances on new content, opting instead to stick with familiar shows that routinely draw viewers, such as crime procedurals, sitcoms, and reality shows. While this approach may work for the short term, I would imagine that unless there is a major shift in their financial model, the Big 4 will cease to exist in their current format.

As an example of the programming that the Big 4 networks find themselves obliged to carry in an effort to keep their numbers up, here's their Fall 2011 promotional lineup.

 
Contrast this with HBO's promotional reel (from 6 years ago, as I couldn't find a more current one that was sharable within the blog).


 

Which channel would you rather watch?